In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
IAOne-OffTecnología3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 91.4%
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Desactualizado16 sept 22, 20:43 UTC1 ene 30, 8:00 UTC
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The fourth question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things
- The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural language specification or by interactions with a non-expert user. [Gluing together code from existing libraries doesn’t count.]"
- Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.
- Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.
- For this question I am not using the exact text of the question, because I think "bug-free" is 1. silly 2. untestable.
- I will instead accept if it produces code of >=10k LOC with <= the number of bugs in an implementation by a human (many small bugs for some significant bugs will unfortunately be down to my subjective impression of whether it's "better")
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 91% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)?
- Está previsto que In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4) se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The fourth question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things