Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?
US PoliticsOne-Off2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 69%
Pronosticadores
39
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado26 ene 24, 19:04 UTC2 feb 29, 4:59 UTC
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Reglas
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.
- The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count, since the first involved violence and widespread condemnation, and the latter has cost him the trust of most powerful institutions.
- This resolves to a poll of the Manifold community.
- Moderators get 5 votes each, everyone else gets 1 vote.
- Voters can interpret "serious attempt" in any reasonable way that matches with the above paragraph.
- Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 69% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term??
- Está previsto que Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? se resuelva el 2 de febrero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.