Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?
Política de EE. UU.One-Off2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 69.3%
Sí 69.3%Pronosticadores
40
Tipo de pregunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado26 ene 24, 19:04 UTC2 feb 29, 4:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.
- The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count, since the first involved violence and widespread condemnation, and the latter has cost him the trust of most powerful institutions.
- This resolves to a poll of the Manifold community.
- Moderators get 5 votes each, everyone else gets 1 vote.
- Voters can interpret "serious attempt" in any reasonable way that matches with the above paragraph.
- Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.