Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 83.9%
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado2 dic 24, 19:11 UTC1 ene 27, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Taylor Swift have a child with Kelce before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version) be announced this year?
KalshiTaylor Swift: Total weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
KalshiTaylor Swift pregnant by which date?
PolymarketWho will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?
PolymarketTaylor Swift: Wedding Dress
KalshiReglas
This market resolves to YES if Taylor Swift publicly confirms or credible sources report that she used a surrogate for any pregnancy resulting in a child born before January 1, 2027.
- If she becomes pregnant and gives birth herself, the market resolves to NO.
- If Taylor Swift does not get pregnant/a surrogate does not become pregnant with a child Taylor plans to raise before January 1, 2027, the market resolves to N/A. • “Credible sources” include major news outlets or statements from Swift or her representatives.
- • Speculative rumors without credible backing will not suffice for a YES resolution.
- • Wording note: one commenter has said “if she uses a surrogate she isn’t pregnant” and while this is technically accurate, it has become common parlance for celebrities to describe surrogacy as a pregnancy, or announce a pregnancy and later reveal that a surrogate was involved.
Mercados abiertos
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 319,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 98 mil €
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,8 M €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
+21 resultados más
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 80 mil €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 130,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 45,3 mil €
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 4 M €
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de If Taylor Swift is expecting a child before 2027, will she use a surrogate??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 84% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve If Taylor Swift is expecting a child before 2027, will she use a surrogate??
- Está previsto que If Taylor Swift is expecting a child before 2027, will she use a surrogate? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida If Taylor Swift is expecting a child before 2027, will she use a surrogate??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves to YES if Taylor Swift publicly confirms or credible sources report that she used a surrogate for any pregnancy resulting in a child born before January 1, 2027.