Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 29 oct 2026, 13:37 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 56.4%
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado ayer
Desactualizado4 abr 26, 12:21 UTC15 ago 29, 22:59 UTC
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- It's possible that this will be an indicator of whether the Labour Party is actually doing okay, or if they need to try a different strategy.
- The reason for the condition is to try to make the market causal on Starmer leaving, by screening off the evidential correlation that Starmer is more likely to stay on if Labour is doing well.
- The complement conditional on Starmer staying is
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Tetraspace/if-labour-loses-1000-council-seats-gPUU59gIC5)This resolves N/A if Labour doesn't lose over 1000 council seats (either it loses less than 1000 seats, or it gains seats), or if Starmer doesn't leave in 2026.
