Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 65.3%
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado4 abr 26, 12:21 UTC15 ago 29, 22:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
If this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?
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SmarketsReglas
The 2026 local elections are upcoming! ~5000 councillors in local councils are going to be up for election, 2000 of whom are currently members of the Labour Party.
- It's possible that this will be an indicator of whether the Labour Party is actually doing okay, or if they need to try a different strategy.
- The reason for the condition is to try to make the market causal on Starmer leaving, by screening off the evidential correlation that Starmer is more likely to stay on if Labour is doing well.
- The complement conditional on Starmer staying is
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Tetraspace/if-labour-loses-1000-council-seats-gPUU59gIC5)This resolves N/A if Labour doesn't lose over 1000 council seats (either it loses less than 1000 seats, or it gains seats), or if Starmer doesn't leave in 2026.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 65% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour??
- Está previsto que If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? se resuelva el 15 de agosto de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The 2026 local elections are upcoming! ~5000 councillors in local councils are going to be up for election, 2000 of whom are currently members of the Labour Party.