If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
One-OffSociedad y culturaCienciaManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 15:11 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualUFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities 21%Líder entre 18 opciones
Pronosticadores
60
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado7 ago 23, 22:27 UTC1 ene 00, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This market is intended to aggregate the most likely reasons why UFO's have word-view shattering origins (for Eliezer Yudkowsky), and reward those who thought of them first.
- In most worlds, I expect this market to resolve "N/A", but who doesn't like the idea of finding the best conspiracy theory.
- I will resolve it to the answer that closest/most specificly details why, so long as it was posted prior to the "worldview shattering event" becoming public knowledge.
- If my resolution appears to controversial, I am quite happy to let a group of trustworthy-ish users/admins re-resolve it.
- This question resolves N/A if Eliezer wins this bet:
- (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/?commentId=rsKjPAPqeFwQuNibD)Kudos to @Joshua's market for bringing this bet to my attention.
