¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)?

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 59.1% a fecha de 30 de octubre de 2026.

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 59.1%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 9 minutos

2 dic 25, 19:02 UTC30 dic 35, 18:53 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

This is the same as https://manifold.markets/Pepe/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-manifo but 30% didn't seem high enough.

The goal of this question is to see if I would have enough warning to buy a plane ticket out.
[link preview]We will examine the most traded Manifold market about China invading Taiwan with a deadline of at most 6 months.
If 3 days before an invasion (or a blockade of flights!) that market says at least 35% then this question resolves YES.
In addition, I will do the same thing for the most traded market about an aerial blockade.
If both markets are below the threshold, this resolves NO.