If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?
IA
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Brakes hit 52%Líder entre 13 opciones
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25
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
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Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado24 may 24, 20:48 UTC1 ene 00, 23:59 UTC
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An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- In response to Eliezer Yudkowsky's market, Rob Bensinger organized the scenarios with a set of tags giving them a pretty ontology.
- This market resolves YES for the tags that are true of the world when AI has an okay outcome.
- This is great, but the options are long, dense, and partly overlapping, in a way that made it trickier for me to assign relative probabilities.
- To help with that, I made this graphic putting the options in order and assigning tags to clusters of related scenarios.
Mercados abiertos
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- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
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- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
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- 2,3 M €
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
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- 344,9 mil €
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- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
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- 9,1 M €
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- 1480+-7.5pt63%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Brakes hit al 52% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason??
- Está previsto que If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2200.
- ¿Cómo se liquida If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as: