If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?
IA
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Brakes hit 52%Líder entre 13 opciones
Brakes hit 52%Pronosticadores
25
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado24 may 24, 20:48 UTC1 ene 00, 23:59 UTC
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An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- In response to Eliezer Yudkowsky's market, Rob Bensinger organized the scenarios with a set of tags giving them a pretty ontology.
- This market resolves YES for the tags that are true of the world when AI has an okay outcome.
- This is great, but the options are long, dense, and partly overlapping, in a way that made it trickier for me to assign relative probabilities.
- To help with that, I made this graphic putting the options in order and assigning tags to clusters of related scenarios.
