Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual1 85.8%Líder entre 4 opciones
Pronosticadores
51
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado16 ene 26, 4:26 UTC20 ene 29, 12:00 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
In his physical possession or ownership, regardless of how he got them.
- Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market is about the physical Nobel Prize medal(s) in Trump's possession or ownership, not the prize designation itself.
- The medal can be transferred or change hands regardless of who originally won the Nobel Prize.
Mercados abiertos
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de How many Nobel Prize Medals will Donald Trump have at the end of his term??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 1 al 86% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve How many Nobel Prize Medals will Donald Trump have at the end of his term??
- Está previsto que How many Nobel Prize Medals will Donald Trump have at the end of his term? se resuelva el 20 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida How many Nobel Prize Medals will Donald Trump have at the end of his term??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: In his physical possession or ownership, regardless of how he got them.