Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBelow normal (2.53 < ACE < 73) 82.2%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
35
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+4.6 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado2 may 26, 5:37 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
0.5%
0.2%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Manifold MarketsHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
PolymarketWill the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season produce at least 3 hurricanes by October 15?
Manifold MarketsWhich storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
PolymarketWhen will the next Atlantic hurricane form?
KalshiReglas
Activity is tracked in terms of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy.
- This Wikipedia page has a list of previous Atlantic hurricane seasons by ACE.
- If the value is 10 or more ACE away from one of the cutoff values, this market resolves in January 2025 to whatever value is listed on Wikipedia.
- If it is close to a cutoff, the market resolves after the reanalysis of all storms is completed (usually in April) to account for postseason adjustments in ACE.
- The last ten years had the following activity: Near normal: 2022 Above normal: 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2025 Hyperactive: 2017, 2020, 2024
- The least active season in recorded history was 1914, while the most active season was 1933.
Mercados abiertos
WeatherPOLYMARKETHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
- 32°C+90.5pt100%
- 25°C or below-0.1pt0%
- 26°C0%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 141,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 129,1 mil €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- 22°C+77.4pt100%
- 17°C or below-1.1pt0%
- 18°C-4.0pt0%
+8 resultados más
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+68.5pt100%
- 21°C or below-0.3pt0%
- 22°C-0.9pt0%
+8 resultados más
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- 93° or above87.6%
- 91° to 92°7.6%
- 89° to 90°1.9%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 72,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 71,8 mil €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Miami+44.0pt99%
- Chicago+13.0pt99%
- Houston64%
+19 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 71,6 mil €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 9?
- 28°C+47.0pt100%
- 24°C or below0%
- 25°C-0.1pt0%
+8 resultados más
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Milan on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 9?
- Highest temperature in London on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Taipei on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 9?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Below normal (2.53 < ACE < 73) al 82% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be??
- Está previsto que How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be? se resuelva el 30 de noviembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Activity is tracked in terms of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy.