Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2027-02-01 87.8%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+37.8 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado28 oct 26, 22:02 UTC16 feb 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsReglas
The '+' means any version at or above 4 counts: a Gemini 4.x Flash or Gemini 5 Flash also counts for the purpose of this market.
- Google may not use the 'Flash' name for this generation: any Gemini 4-or-later model generally agreed to be smaller than Gemini 4 Argon and Gemini 4 Carbon counts as well, whatever it is called.
- Flash-Lite-tier releases do not resolve this market.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.