What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description)
TecnologíaOne-Off1dManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualsignalis 78.7%Líder entre 34 opciones
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado10 ago 26, 16:38 UTC10 sept 26, 16:38 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves to my subjective probability of it providing net benefit to my overall goals in expectation in the counterfactual to [the counterfactual where i don't experience it] where the answer is watched at a random time during times where i would have counterfactually have chosen to experience similar media after resolution time with a uniform distribution between Aug 10 and Sep 8 inclusive.
- The duration is important here, since the counterfactual would fill up the time with other stories of the same duration.
- I estimate sum of (probabilities × time spent) = 50-150 hours (total amount of time i will likely spend on these).
- The similar clause is because different times call for different stories.
- Resolution will occur at the resolution date.
- I will N/A all answers that I do not experience before the resolution date.
Mercados abiertos
Tech
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KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
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KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
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- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description)?
- Manifold Markets cotiza signalis al 79% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description)?
- Está previsto que What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) se resuelva el 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description)?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves to my subjective probability of it providing net benefit to my overall goals in expectation in the counterfactual to [the counterfactual where i don't experience it] where the answer is watched at a random time during times where i would have counterfactually have chosen to experience similar media after resolution time with a uniform distribution between Aug 10 and Sep 8 inclusive.