Pronóstico comunitario actual
Kamala Harris 59.1%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado11 jul 24, 22:29 UTC7 nov 28, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
59.1%
Mercados Relacionados
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Each choice should be read as "if X is the 2024 nominee, the Democratic party's chances of winning the 2028 presidential election are Y%", where X is the choice text and Y is the choice probability.
- Conditional will be set by whoever comes out of the 2024 Democratic convention (nominally ending August 22) as the official nominee of that party.
- At that point I will N/A all other options and the nominee's option will remain open until market closes right before the 2028 election.
- Should the party's nominee change after the convention for any reason, that does not change the conditional (aka it is based on who they officially nominate, not who ends up running by the time November rolls around).
- I will not resolve the conditional based on any early virtual roll call or whatnot.
- Conditional resolves after the actual convention regardless of what happens beforehand.
Mercados abiertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
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- Jon Ossoff12%
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- Volumen total
- 605,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 691,8 mil €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Kamala Harris al 59% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028??
- Está previsto que Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028? se resuelva el 7 de noviembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Each choice should be read as "if X is the 2024 nominee, the Democratic party's chances of winning the 2028 presidential election are Y%", where X is the choice text and Y is the choice probability.