Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028?
PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElección2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 61.2%
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado10 ene 24, 21:01 UTC16 nov 28, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
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PolymarketReglas
If Trump wins the election in 2024, his record in office could affect the results of 2028, either by causing people to sour on the Republican Party, or convincing more people to vote for the Republican Party after a successful term.
- Therefore, the probability here should not necessarily be the same as @/PlasmaBallin/will-a-republican-be-elected-presid
- No matter who wins the 2024 election, the 2028 election is likely to have no incumbent, since either Joe Biden or Donald Trump would be prevented from running for reelection by term limits.
- Therefore, the difference between this market and the unconditional version can be compared to the difference between @/PlasmaBallin/conditional-on-a-biden-being-electe and @/PlasmaBallin/will-a-democrat-be-elected-presiden, since neither one is influenced by an incumbency advantage or disadvantage - both are purely measures of whether a certain candidate's term will strengthen or weaken the chances of their party's next nominee.
Mercados abiertos
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 61% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028??
- Está previsto que Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028? se resuelva el 16 de noviembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If Trump wins the election in 2024, his record in office could affect the results of 2028, either by causing people to sour on the Republican Party, or convincing more people to vote for the Republican Party after a successful term.