Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 85.7%
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15
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado25 mar 25, 5:23 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Futuur[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolves yes if China is able to produce <= 3 nm chips at a ~70% yield rate.
- Will settle to credible sources, such as SemiAnalysis reports.
- Company press reports would not count.
- Considerations
- "Yield rate" refers to the percentage of functioning chips produced from each silicon wafer.
- A 70% yield rate is considered reasonably good for semiconductor manufacturing.
