Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNone of these options 50.7%Líder entre 4 opciones
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado9 ago 26, 2:00 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Demis Hassabis also win a Nobel Prize in Medicine?
Manifold MarketsDemis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves NO for the given option if Hassabis continuously spends the majority of his working time in roles at Alphabet or its subsidiaries (incl.
- Google DeepMind, Isomorphic Labs).
- Job titles don’t matter.
- Part-time advisory alongside outside ventures counts as YES.
- Resolves YES immediately if he leaves before then.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de By when will Demis Hassabis leave Google??
- Manifold Markets cotiza None of these options al 51% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve By when will Demis Hassabis leave Google??
- Está previsto que By when will Demis Hassabis leave Google? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida By when will Demis Hassabis leave Google??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves NO for the given option if Hassabis continuously spends the majority of his working time in roles at Alphabet or its subsidiaries (incl.