Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2036 69.2%Líder entre 10 opciones
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado6 ago 26, 1:39 UTC1 ene 36, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves YES if an autonomous robot electrician exists and can complete most residential service tasks.
- Also resolves YES if it's a team of robots and not a single robot.
- Evaluating the 50% threshold is going to be tricky - the ideal would be a company that has robot electricians and reports their success rate, but that seems unlikely.
- Some other options: - I ask service electricians to make a list their most common tasks, resolves YES if a robot can do those specific tasks (regardless of actual deployment) - No one is hiring human electricians any more - There's a sizable group of people depending on robot electricians for almost everything (even if we don't have a task success rate breakdown)
- Note that construction/remodeling work is not part of the question.
- Also note that I know almost nothing about electrical work, if this question is ill-posed in some way I may edit or resolve it N/A.
Mercados abiertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 944,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 721,8 mil €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Volumen total
- 620 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 536 mil €
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volumen total
- 514,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 496,9 mil €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de By what year will there be fully autonomous robotic electricians??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Before 2036 al 69% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve By what year will there be fully autonomous robotic electricians??
- Está previsto que By what year will there be fully autonomous robotic electricians? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2036.
- ¿Cómo se liquida By what year will there be fully autonomous robotic electricians??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if an autonomous robot electrician exists and can complete most residential service tasks.