Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 93.9%
Pronosticadores
23
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado16 dic 23, 1:05 UTC1 ene 27, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsYann LeCun's AMI (props)
Manifold MarketsWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
ForecastExBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves subjectively.
- I won’t bet on the market.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 132,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,3 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 322,4 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de By EOY 2026, will Yann LeCun do a 180 on his view of x-risk from AI??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 94% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve By EOY 2026, will Yann LeCun do a 180 on his view of x-risk from AI??
- Está previsto que By EOY 2026, will Yann LeCun do a 180 on his view of x-risk from AI? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida By EOY 2026, will Yann LeCun do a 180 on his view of x-risk from AI??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves subjectively.