Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 96.1%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado17 nov 23, 12:46 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Formalization of: https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1725286678401835210.
- 'Hit a wall' means roughly as I understand it that rate of advancement of underlying capabilities has slowed greatly compared to the pace of 2021-2023.
- Resolution will be my evaluation of consensus opinion.
- Best available form of polling will be used if needed.
- I will ask about the term 'hit a wall' and noting how I understand its meaning, in that case.
- Note that this measures gains in the underlying capabilities of the AI systems.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 96% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025??
- Está previsto que By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Formalization of: https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1725286678401835210.