Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 96.2%
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215
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 13 minutos
17 nov 23, 12:46 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Formalization of: https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1725286678401835210.
- 'Hit a wall' means roughly as I understand it that rate of advancement of underlying capabilities has slowed greatly compared to the pace of 2021-2023.
- Resolution will be my evaluation of consensus opinion.
- Best available form of polling will be used if needed.
- I will ask about the term 'hit a wall' and noting how I understand its meaning, in that case.
- Note that this measures gains in the underlying capabilities of the AI systems.