¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de By 2034, will most Americans leave the house with only their phones (no wallet or keys)??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 79.9% a fecha de 24 de octubre de 2026.

By 2034, will most Americans leave the house with only their phones (no wallet or keys)?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 79.9%

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Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 29 minutos

3 abr 24, 22:02 UTC11 abr 34, 3:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Currently most of us leave the house with phone, wallet and keys.

Increasingly, phones are able to act as both a wallet and keys.
This will resolve to Yes if there is a reputable survey that demonstrates that the majority of Americans adults (18+) use their phones as their primary method of payment and keys (car and house) and answer some version of the question
“When you leave your home, what combination of phone, wallet and keys do you usually take?”
with the answer “Phones only”