Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 83.5%
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado23 may 23, 13:10 UTC31 dic 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
I can buy a level 4 self-driving car in the U.S or Europe
Manifold MarketsI can buy a level 5 self-driving car in the U.S or Europe
Manifold MarketsWill there be an autonomous driving car that can drive reliably in most of India, by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an autonomous driving car that can drive reliably in most of India, by 2030?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 19, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Oct 19, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
KalshiReglas
Market resolves to YES if Kelly Blue Book, Edmunds, Consumer Reports or another similarly credible source estimates that a BEV/electric car legally sold in the U.S with a minimum range of 120 miles has a lower TCO (total cost of ownership) per mile over the lifetime of the vehicle when excluding depreciation and all tax credits than any new ICE/gas-powered car of the same model year before year end 2030.
- To my knowledge, the lowest TCO BEV available in the U.S today is a Tesla Model 3, at one point available for 39,900$.
- I suspect that it costs roughly 28,000$ to build a Tesla Model 3.
- I also believe that a Tesla Model 3 sold for 28,000$ would be cheap enough to resolve this question to YES, due to to the low fuel costs for the Tesla Model 3 (~3 cents per mile assuming average electricity cost of 12c/kWh and 4 miles per kWh).
