By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
One-OffIA3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 88.9%
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Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado16 sept 22, 20:34 UTC1 ene 30, 8:00 UTC
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The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things
- The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in Rebooting AI."
- Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.
- Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 89% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)?
- Está previsto que By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things