By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction
EntretenimientoOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 85.8%
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Desactualizado31 mar 24, 0:22 UTC2 ene 28, 12:59 UTC
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Given https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener and how AI capabilities would need to evolve to be able to create a full movie what training materials and methodologies will be required vs what might be available online.
- A director is the closest analogy in human terms I could come up with to an AI pumping out a whole movie, so if we restrict our pool of human directors to people initially trained on the same information an AI might have then there is a reasonable comparison group to consider capability gain.
- Do you think that a director who wins an Oscar between now and 2028 will publicly acknowledge having gotten started using an online course on directing?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 86% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction?
- Está previsto que By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Given https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener and how AI capabilities would need to evolve to be able to create a full movie what training materials and methodologies will be required vs what might be available online.