Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
9.5 pts (24h)Tecnología4mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualIFT 14 61.1%+9.5ptLíder entre 13 opciones
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 19 minutos
19 mar 24, 3:462 ene 27, 15:59
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An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in the Atlantic after one circumnavigation.
- I will add an the named outcome if Other is larger than any other option for a non-trivial period of time (and so on, by induction)
- If SpaceX changes the naming convention, for example to OFT, this question will still apply.
- If SpaceX announces before the named outcome that the named outcome will orbit, the named outcome would be the one to resolve YES.
- If they did this I would still wait until before the (eg) #6 flight to check they didn't change it based on what happened in #5
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit??
- Manifold Markets cotiza IFT 14 al 61% a fecha de 21 de agosto de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit??
- Está previsto que Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in the Atlantic after one circumnavigation.