Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 87.8%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado11 sept 25, 1:25 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?
Manifold MarketsUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiReglas
In early 2025 METR found that AI tools slow down open source developers.
- Will this change by 2027?
- Must find improved productivity within a 95% confidence interval
- https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/
- Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The RCT does not have to be peer reviewed to resolve this market.
- A preprint is acceptable as long as it is made public by METR.
Mercados abiertos
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Volumen total
- 12,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 11,2 M €
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 resultados más
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 24 M €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Volumen total
- 15,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,9 M €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 24,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,9 M €
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Volumen total
- 2,1 M €
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
- US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
- Tiafoe vs Michelsen
- Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Real Madrid vs Inter
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 88% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers??
- Está previsto que Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: In early 2025 METR found that AI tools slow down open source developers.