Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 67.7%
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 minutos
25 mar 25, 2:56 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution Criteria:
- I will run Sparse Adversarial Perturbations with top models available by EOY 2026 using METR's Vivaria.
- I will run the problem five times with each model.
- If any succeeds on at least 2/5 attempts, this market resolves YES.
- Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
- METR has proposed a law for the length of tasks than AI can do.
