KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requeridoDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosSin precio significativo
Datos del 3 oct 2026, 10:06 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Probabilidad implícita actual
OpenAI 15%Líder entre 34 opciones
OpenAI 15%Calidad del mercado
29 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Interés abierto
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Interés abierto desconocidoSpread
8.0 pt
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 minutos
3 oct 26, 0:00 UTC31 dic 29, 14:59 UTC
Tendencias
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Kalshi
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Cierre anticipado:
- No
- Plazo de liquidación:
- 30m (informativo)
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?
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Manifold MarketsWill a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketGPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?
Manifold MarketsReglas
If OpenAI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers.
Reglas de cada resultado
- OpenAI
- If OpenAI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Anthropic
- If Anthropic has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Google has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Meta
- If Meta has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- xAI
- If xAI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Moonshot
- If Moonshot has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Z AI
- If Z AI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Xiaomi
- If Xiaomi has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- MiniMax
- If MiniMax has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tencent
- If Tencent has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Alibaba
- If Alibaba has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- DeepSeek
- If DeepSeek has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- StepFun
- If StepFun has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mistral
- If Mistral has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- NVIDIA
- If NVIDIA has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Amazon
- If Amazon has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Baidu
- If Baidu has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- ByteDance
- If ByteDance has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Thinking Machines
- If Thinking Machines has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- China Mobile
- If China Mobile has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Institute of Foundation Models
- If Institute of Foundation Models has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Upstage
- If Upstage has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- InclusionAI
- If InclusionAI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- LongCat
- If LongCat has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cohere
- If Cohere has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Inception
- If Inception has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Arcee AI
- If Arcee AI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Microsoft
- If Microsoft has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Safe Superintelligence
- If Safe Superintelligence has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Reflection AI
- If Reflection AI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Essential AI
- If Essential AI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Prime Intellect
- If Prime Intellect has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Huawei
- If Huawei has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- LG AI Research
- If LG AI Research has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.