KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Above 2.0% 86%Líder entre 7 opciones
Calidad del mercado
63 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
4 mil €
Liquidez
3,2 mil €
Liquidez mediaSpread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 minutos
14 sept 26, 19:00 UTC13 oct 27, 12:29 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security cease to be by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?
KalshiSocial Security Insolvent by which date?
PolymarketWill Congress enact an increase in the retirement age for Social Security before the end of 2028?
ForecastExWill social security go bankrupt by 2030?
Manifold MarketsReglas
If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above
Liquida mediante:Social Security Administration
- 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For purposes of this market, the “2028 Social Security COLA” means the percentage cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, which are generally paid in January 2028.
- The market will be determined using the initial percentage officially announced by the Social Security Administration.
- Subsequent revisions, corrections, or legislative changes will not be considered.
- This market concerns the gross Social Security cost-of-living adjustment and does not concern changes in Medicare premiums or the resulting net amount received by any beneficiary.
Mercados abiertos
InflationKALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.2%98%
- Above 3.3%98%
+18 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 265,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 76,3 mil €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+11 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 157,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 36,4 mil €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)-4.5pt61.4%
- 1 (25 bps)-2.5pt18.8%
- 3 (75 bps)+4.4pt17.8%
+3 resultados más
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+4.0pt83.2%
- No-4.0pt16.8%
- Volumen total
- 33,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 31,4 mil €
POLYMARKETFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Hike–Pause–Hike-0.5pt41%
- Hike–Hike–Pause+4.5pt24%
- Hike–Hike–Hike-5.0pt20%
+6 resultados más
- Owners' equivalent rent for September 2026
- September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- CPI core in October
- September Inflation US - Annual
- CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- September Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI core in September
- Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)
- CPI month-over-month in Sep 2026?
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Social Security COLA for 2028?
- Kalshi cotiza Above 2.0% al 86% a fecha de 18 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Social Security COLA for 2028?
- Está previsto que Social Security COLA for 2028 se resuelva el 13 de octubre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Social Security COLA for 2028?
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above