Probabilidad implícita actual
Tarcísio de Freitas 92%-3.0%Líder entre 6 opciones
Calidad del mercado
60 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
0,9 €
Liquidez
11,4 mil €
Liquidez mediaCompra / Venta
92.0% / 96.0%
Spread
4.3%
Spread moderadoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 29 minutos
25 abr 26, 14:004 oct 27, 14:00
Tendencias
0%
0%
0%
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Tarcísio de Freitas92%
Comparar plataformas· Tarcísio de Freitas
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMejor en general80% de coincidencia · auto | Media | 94% | 0pt | 363,2 € | 118,2 mil € | hace 9 minutos | Abrir → |
 KalshiEsta página | Media | 92% | -2pt | 0,9 € | 11,4 mil € | hace 29 minutos |
También disponible en Polymarket
São Paulo Governor Election Winner
0.6%2m
94%
+0.6%5%
1%
+22 resultados más
64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución
Volumen total212,3 mil €
Volumen 24h363,2 €
POLYMARKETReglas
If Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Operaciones grandes
$4.8k92.0%POLYMARKETYes78979879879879hace 24 d
POLYMARKETYes78979879879879hace 24 dTendencia de volumen
$12 jul9d de datos26 jul
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If Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.