KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Richard Neal, ≥5% 90.8%Líder entre 11 opcionesAjustado por margen: las cotizaciones brutas sumaban más del 100% y se normalizaron.
Calidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
10,7 mil €
Liquidez mediaSpread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 minutos
27 ago 26, 19:45 UTC1 sept 27, 14:00 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
If the margin of victory for Richard Neal in the 2026 MA-01 Democratic primary is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:official election authority responsible for certifying results in
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Richard Neal minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Richard Neal if Richard Neal wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Richard Neal loses.
- If Richard Neal wins, the margin will be positive; if Richard Neal loses, the margin will be negative; if Richard Neal ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Richard Neal runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Mercados abiertos
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 605,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 697,7 mil €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 183,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 471,3 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 resultados más
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de MA-01 Democratic primary margin of victory? (Richard Neal)?
- Kalshi cotiza Richard Neal, ≥5% al 91% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve MA-01 Democratic primary margin of victory? (Richard Neal)?
- Está previsto que MA-01 Democratic primary margin of victory? (Richard Neal) se resuelva el 1 de septiembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida MA-01 Democratic primary margin of victory? (Richard Neal)?
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If the margin of victory for Richard Neal in the 2026 MA-01 Democratic primary is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.