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  1. Mercados de Predicción
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  3. Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory
Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory

Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory

3.0% (24h)One-OffPolíticaElecciónUS Politics10m
KalshiKalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisión
Probabilidad implícita actual
Karen Bass, 4-8%
Karen Bass, 4-8% 99%+3.0%
Líder entre 13 opciones
Calidad del mercado

79 / 100

Alta calidad
Volumen 24h

934,8 €

Liquidez

2,5 mil €

Liquidez media
Compra / Venta

99.0% / 100.0%

Spread

1.0%

Spread estrecho
Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 2 minutos

27 abr 26, 19:0028 abr 27, 14:00

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

Karen Bass, 4-8%99%

Reglas

If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Karen Bass minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Karen Bass minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Karen Bass wins, or the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Karen Bass does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.

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Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

106,7 €
Abdul El-Sayed, 6-9%: 22%KalshiKALSHI
Iowa Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Iowa Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

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South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin of victory?

South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin of victory?

53,4 €
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South Carolina Republican Governor primary margin of victory? (1st Round)

South Carolina Republican Governor primary margin of victory? (1st Round)

46 €
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Maine Democratic Governor primary: margin of victory (final round)

Maine Democratic Governor primary: margin of victory (final round)

38,9 €
Shenna Bellows wins: 20%KalshiKALSHI

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Reglas

If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Karen Bass minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Karen Bass minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Karen Bass wins, or the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Karen Bass does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.