California's 23rd District margin of victory
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónElecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 20261a
KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requeridoDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPunto medio del libro seleccionado
Obernolte, 2+ pts · —
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Precio guardado
Obernolte, 2+ pts 92.5%Líder entre 9 opciones
Obernolte, 2+ pts 92.5%Calidad del mercado
20 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
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Interés abierto
1 mil US$
Interés abierto bajoCompra / Venta
— / —
Obernolte, 2+ ptsSpread
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 45 minutos
Retrasado1 sept 26, 14:00 UTC3 nov 27, 15:00 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Kalshi
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Cierre anticipado:
- Sí
- Plazo de liquidación:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidad de mercado · Obernolte, 2+ pts
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Reglas
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 11 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:California Secretary of State
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
Reglas de cada resultado
- Obernolte, 2+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 5+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 8+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 11+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 11 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 14+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 17+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 17 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 20+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 20 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 23+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 23 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 26+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 26 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
