How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
6.0 pts (24h)YearlyPolíticaUS PoliticsElección
KalshiCerradoComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: 5 (97%)
Resuelto: 16 sept 2026, 16:15
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Probabilidad implícita actual
5 95.1%+7.1ptLíder entre 5 opcionesAjustado por margen: las cotizaciones brutas sumaban más del 100% y se normalizaron.
Calidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
7,8 mil €
Liquidez
108,9 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
3.0 pt
Spread moderadoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 días
Desactualizado18 ene 26, 17:00 UTC3 nov 26, 15:00 UTC
Cronología de Probabilidad
591%
7 or more2%
95.1%
2%
2%
1%
0%
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ForecastExReglas
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:Federal RegisterThe New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox News
- To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
- In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
- For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
- In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
- If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 4, then the market resolves to Yes.