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  1. Mercados de Predicción
  2. Política
  3. How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

2.0% (24h)YearlyPolíticaUS PoliticsElección4m
KalshiKalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisión
Probabilidad implícita actual
7 or more
7 or more 13%-2.0%
Líder entre 8 opciones
Calidad del mercado

28 / 100

Baja calidad
Volumen 24h

2,8 €

Liquidez

1,2 mil €

Baja liquidez
Compra / Venta

13.0% / 16.0%

Spread

23.1%

Spread amplio
Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 1 minuto

18 ene 26, 17:003 nov 26, 15:00

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

7 or more13%

Reglas

If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 0, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
  • In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
  • For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
  • In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
  • If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Activos en estos temas

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Reglas

If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 0, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
  • In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
  • For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
  • In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
  • If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.