PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: France (100%)
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
France 100%+19.4ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$21.4K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+22.4 pts
Market data
Updated 29 days ago
StaleDec 6, 25, 12:22 AMJun 27, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Iraq0%
France100%
Senegal0%
Norway20%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· France
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall67% match · verified | Low | 99% | — | $111.5K | $4.8K | 30 days ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Low | 100% | — | $21.4K | $0 | 29 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Group I Winner
20.0 ptsClosed
Resolved
France (99%)
+20.0pt97.1%
-20.0pt1%
1%
+1 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$910.5K
24h Vol$111.5K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.
- If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
- If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.
- If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
- If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.