Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane?
Weather
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes
Resolved: Aug 30, 2023, 4:46 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
Yes 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 122 days ago
StaleAug 28, 23, 6:15 PMAug 30, 23, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the tropical system currently named Idalia makes landfall in Florida as a major hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?).
- If Idalia is not officially reported to be Category 3 or greater status at the time of landfall in Florida or dissipates without making landfall in Florida, this market shall resolve to "No."
- For the purposes of this market, a major hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a major hurricane landfall is said to occur when the major hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
- This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether Idalia has made landfall in Florida at category 3 or greater strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane??
- Polymarket prices Yes at 100% as of April 24, 2026.
- When does Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane? resolve?
- Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane? is scheduled to resolve on August 30, 2023.
- How is Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the tropical system currently named Idalia makes landfall in Florida as a major hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?).