Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane?
Weather
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Yes
Resolved: Aug 30, 2023, 4:46 PM
Provider-verified resolution
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Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
YesWon
NoLost
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the tropical system currently named Idalia makes landfall in Florida as a major hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?).
- If Idalia is not officially reported to be Category 3 or greater status at the time of landfall in Florida or dissipates without making landfall in Florida, this market shall resolve to "No."
- For the purposes of this market, a major hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a major hurricane landfall is said to occur when the major hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
- This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether Idalia has made landfall in Florida at category 3 or greater strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
