Will Hilary hit US as a hurricane?
Weather
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Aug 21, 2023, 4:01 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 122 days ago
StaleAug 18, 23, 7:42 PMAug 25, 23, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the storm named Hilary (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/150034.shtml) is a hurricane when it crosses over United States land.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Hilary does not hit the United States by August 25, 2023 ET, or otherwise dissipates before that date, this market will resolve to "No".
- This market will resolve based on an initial announcement released by NOAA that Hilary has crossed over United States land within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
- If information from NOAA becomes unavailable a consensus of credible sources will be used.
Open markets
Weather
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Aug 25, 2026?
- 85° to 86°+81.0pt95.2%
- 89° or above1%
- 83° to 84°-51.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401.4K
- 24h Vol
- $383.6K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Aug 25, 2026?
- New Orleans+18.0pt99%
- Denver+11.0pt60%
- Oklahoma City+2.0pt14%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $233.9K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Aug 25, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+42.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-31.0pt1%
- 94° to 95°-11.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Aug 25, 2026?
- 78° or below+47.0pt94.2%
- 79° to 80°-34.0pt1.9%
- 81° to 82°-8.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 84 F on August 25, 2026?
- No90%
- Yes10%
- Total Vol
- $60.7K
- 24h Vol
- $60.7K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Chicago on Aug 25, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+56.0pt95.2%
- 82° to 83°-20.0pt1%
- 78° to 79°-25.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Hilary hit US as a hurricane??
- Polymarket prices No at 100% as of April 25, 2026.
- When does Will Hilary hit US as a hurricane? resolve?
- Will Hilary hit US as a hurricane? is scheduled to resolve on August 25, 2023.
- How is Will Hilary hit US as a hurricane? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the storm named Hilary (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/150034.shtml) is a hurricane when it crosses over United States land.