Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?
6.5 pts (24h)SportsOne-OffSoccerLatin AmericaFIFA World Cup
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (100%)
Resolved: Jul 12, 2026, 6:05 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probabilityNo 100%+0.1pt
Market quality
29 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$44.6K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
7d Change
-18.4 pts
Market data
Updated 14 days ago
StaleJun 5, 26, 11:08 PMJul 20, 26, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
No100%
Yes0%
0%
100%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
[ACX 2026] Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be a country that has never won before?
Closed
Resolved
No (99%)
99%
1%
Community forecast98 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Futuur
Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be a country that has never won it before?
Closed
86%
14%
15 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$651.3
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is a nation that has never previously won a FIFA World Cup.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purpose of this market, the nations that have previously won a FIFA World Cup are: Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina, France, and Spain.
- If the 2026 champion is any nation other than these eight, this market resolves “Yes”.
- If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.1k93.0%POLYMARKETNokilvin16d ago
POLYMARKETNokilvin16d ago$2.2k7.0%POLYMARKETYesoneAce16d ago
POLYMARKETYesoneAce16d ago$2.2k7.0%POLYMARKETYesFalse-Gateway16d ago
POLYMARKETYesFalse-Gateway16d ago$1.9k93.0%POLYMARKETNoGaditima17d ago
POLYMARKETNoGaditima17d ago$1.7k86.0%POLYMARKETNoGaditima19d ago
POLYMARKETNoGaditima19d ago$1.3k84.0%POLYMARKETNoUS-Phenom20d ago
POLYMARKETNoUS-Phenom20d ago$6.2k77.1%POLYMARKETNochasingdreamsvamos26d ago
POLYMARKETNochasingdreamsvamos26d ago$1.4k76.0%POLYMARKETNosuntori27d ago
POLYMARKETNosuntori27d agoVolume trend
$44.6kJul 212d of dataJul 13
Related Markets
Where will the 2038 FIFA World Cup be hosted (any option that hosts at least one match will resolve YES)?
$90.3United States: 26%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Messi to play for Argentina again after the 2026 WC by Dec 31, 2026
$0Yes: 50%
LIMITLESS
LIMITLESSWhich player will score the winning goal in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? [ADD ANSWERS]
$414.8Lionel Messi: 0.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
2027 FIFA Women's World Cup Champion
$405.1Brazil: 15%
KALSHI
KALSHIWhich country will be next to win their first FIFA World Cup?
$125Portugal: 16.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Who will host the 2029 Men's FIFA Club World Cup?
$43.2Mexico: 11%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
KuCoin Marks Major Sponsorship Milestone as Ambassador Pogačar Wins Record Fifth Tour de FranceBlockchain Reporter
Polymarket odds: Kane jumps to 41% in 2026 Ballon d'Or marketBlockchain.News
Worldcoin’s WLD Jumps 8% on Grayscale ETF FilingDecrypt
Grayscale files for Worldcoin ETF as WLD price breaks higherCrypto News
Polymarket prices Golden Ball at 50% despite Spain reaching World Cup finalBlockchain.News
Prediction markets just crushed traditional sportsbooks in a massive $50 billion World Cup breakoutCoindeskRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is a nation that has never previously won a FIFA World Cup.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purpose of this market, the nations that have previously won a FIFA World Cup are: Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina, France, and Spain.
- If the 2026 champion is any nation other than these eight, this market resolves “Yes”.
- If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.