US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
0.3% (24h)Health & MedicineQuarterlyBusiness & CorporateMacro & Economy6mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 36%
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$217.2
Low liquidityBid / Ask
1.4% / 71.5%
Spread
5007.1%
Wide spread7d Change
+30.5%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Apr 27, 26, 8:58 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
Yes36%
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The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
- Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
- The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.