PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Nov 1, 2026, 6:24 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 2, 2026, 6:23 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
2:28:0098%
2:25:0099%
2:18:002%
2:19:001%
2:20:000%
2:21:0050%
2:22:001%
2:23:000%
2:25:00Won
2:28:00Won
2:18:00Lost
2:19:00Lost
2:20:00Lost
2:21:00Lost
2:22:00Lost
2:23:00Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Trump administration militarize New York City before the 2026 Midterms?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the winner of the Women's Open Division of the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon, scheduled for November 1, 2026 records an official finish time equal to or faster than the listed time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If the race is canceled, or is postponed to a date more than two days after November 1, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.
- The primary resolution source will be the official results published by New York Road Runners (NYRR); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
