PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Andreas Almgren
Resolved: Nov 1, 2026, 6:26 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Andreas Almgren
At 7 days out
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At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 2, 2026, 5:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Andreas Almgren43%
Joe Klecker20%
Jared Ward16%
Kamohelo Mofolo11%
Patrick Dever11%
Andrew Colley8%
Kengo Suzuki8%
Merga Gemeda8%
Jack Rowe7%
Joel Reichow7%
Paul Chelimo7%
Peter Lynch7%
Haftu Strintzos6%
Mo Bati6%
Ryan Cutter6%
Aidan Troutner5%
Ryan Ford5%
Sam Chelanga5%
Conner Mantz25%
Edward Cheserek25%
Ryota Kondo25%
Yemaneberhan Crippa4%
CyBrian Kotut25%
Geoffrey Kamworor25%
Huseydin Mohamed Esa25%
JP Flavin3%
James Nipperess25%
Owen Ritz25%
Abdi Nageeye25%
Ahmed Muhumed25%
Aidan Reed25%
Alec Baldwin20%
Casey Clinger25%
Deresa Geleta25%
JP Trojan25%
Robert Miranda25%
Stephen Jones25%
Turner Wiley2%
Zouhair Talbi25%
Benson Kipruto26%
Iliass Aouani0%
Patrick Kiprop26%
Andreas AlmgrenWon
Abdi NageeyeLost
Ahmed MuhumedLost
Aidan ReedLost
Aidan TroutnerLost
Alec BaldwinLost
Andrew ColleyLost
Benson KiprutoLost
Casey ClingerLost
Conner MantzLost
CyBrian KotutLost
Deresa GeletaLost
Edward CheserekLost
Geoffrey KamwororLost
Haftu StrintzosLost
Huseydin Mohamed EsaLost
Iliass AouaniLost
JP FlavinLost
JP TrojanLost
Jack RoweLost
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the athlete who wins the Men's Open Division of the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon, scheduled for November 1, 2026.
- If a listed athlete does not start or does not finish the race, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
- If the official results declare a tie for first place, this market will resolve to "Other".
- If the race is canceled, or is postponed to a date more than two days after November 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The primary resolution source will be the official results published by New York Road Runners (NYRR); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
