PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Down (100%)
Resolved: Jul 8, 2026, 4:14 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Down
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
45%
SurpriseCurrent implied probabilityDown 100%+0.5pt
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$24.8K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
Market data
Updated 18 days ago
StaleJul 6, 26, 4:00 PMJul 8, 26, 4:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Up0%
Down100%
Coin Price Context
Coin price movements are shown for context and do not imply causation.
ETH$1.77K → $1.74K-1.5%
0%
100%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Down
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $24.8K | $0 | 18 days ago | |
 Limitless85% match · auto | Low | 100% | — | $102.4 | $0 | 18 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
ETH Up or Down - Daily
Closed
Resolved
No (99.5%)
99.5%
0.5%
17 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$173.4
24h Vol$102.4
LIMITLESSRules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 8 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 8 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
- The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
- Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$4.9k96.0%POLYMARKETDownHaileyWelch19d ago
POLYMARKETDownHaileyWelch19d ago$3.4k54.0%POLYMARKETUpfred433220d ago
POLYMARKETUpfred433220d agoVolume trend
$24.8kJul 73d of dataJul 9
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This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 8 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 8 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
- The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
- Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.