PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Down (100%)
Resolved: Jul 8, 2026, 4:14 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Down
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
48%
SurpriseCurrent implied probabilityDown 100%+0.5pt
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$155.9K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
Market data
Updated 18 days ago
StaleJul 6, 26, 4:00 PMJul 8, 26, 4:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Up0%
Down96%
Coin Price Context
Coin price movements are shown for context and do not imply causation.
BTC$63.36K → $62.32K-1.7%
0%
100%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Down
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $155.9K | $0 | 18 days ago | |
 Limitless85% match · auto | Low | 100% | — | $49.3K | $0 | 18 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
BTC Up or Down - Daily
Closed
Resolved
No (99.5%)
99.5%
0.5%
30 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$49.4K
24h Vol$49.3K
LIMITLESSRules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 8 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 8 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
- The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
- Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$3.2k98.9%POLYMARKETDownjhz112219d ago
POLYMARKETDownjhz112219d agoVolume trend
$155.9kJul 64d of dataJul 9
Related Cryptos
Related Markets
BTC price on Jul 27, 2026 at 10am EDT?
$1.1M$65,000 or above: 96%
KALSHI
KALSHI
What price will Bitcoin hit in July?
$973K↑ 65,000: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on July 27?
$959.9K58,000: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETBTC price on Jul 27, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
$762K$65,250 or above: 63%KALSHI
KALSHIBTC price on Jul 31, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
$377.4K$65,000 or above: 59%KALSHI
KALSHI
BTC Up or Down - Hourly
$140.4KYes: 90.8%LIMITLESS
LIMITLESSActive in these topics
Related News
Benchmark reiterates $570 Strategy target, says cash reserve strengthens bitcoin acquisition planThe Block
Strategy Adds $525M to Cash Reserve, Skips Bitcoin Buy for Fifth WeekDecrypt
Ether Outpaces Bitcoin as Macro Crosswinds Trap BTC Near $65,000Blockchain Reporter
Bitmine buys more ether as Tom Lee says rising ETH/BTC ratio points to stronger crypto pricesCoindesk
Strategy builds $3.75B cash cushion as Bitcoin buying stays pausedCrypto News
Rate path still divides investors: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekCointelegraphRules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 8 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 8 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
- The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
- Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.