PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Up (100%)
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, 4:18 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Up
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
49%
SurpriseCurrent implied probabilityUp 100%+0.5pt
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$248.3K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 20 days ago
StaleJul 4, 26, 4:00 PMJul 6, 26, 4:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Up100%
Down0%
Coin Price Context
Coin price movements are shown for context and do not imply causation.
BTC$63.57K → $64.07K+0.8%
100%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Up
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $248.3K | $0 | 20 days ago | |
 Limitless75% match · auto | Low | 75% | — | $18.5K | $0 | 21 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
BTC Up or Down - Daily
Closed
Resolved
Yes (74.9%)
74.9%
25.1%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$125.2K
24h Vol$18.5K
LIMITLESSRules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 6 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 6 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
- The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
- Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$3.4k99.0%POLYMARKETUp0x06dc…452422d ago
POLYMARKETUp0x06dc…452422d agoVolume trend
$248.3kJul 53d of dataJul 7
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This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 6 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 6 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
- The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
- Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.