PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Down (100%)
Resolved: Jul 5, 2026, 4:20 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Down
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
53%
Current implied probabilityDown 100%+0.5pt
Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$133.7K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
Market data
Updated 20 days ago
StaleJul 3, 26, 4:00 PMJul 5, 26, 4:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Up0%
Down100%
Coin Price Context
Coin price movements are shown for context and do not imply causation.
BTC$63.16K → $63.57K+0.7%
0%
100%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Down
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LimitlessBest overall90% match · auto | Low | 85% | — | $457.6K | $0 | 21 days ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Low | 100% | — | $133.7K | $0 | 20 days ago |
Also available on Limitless
BTC Up or Down - Daily
Closed
Resolved
No (85%)
85%
15%
34 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$457.6K
24h Vol$457.6K
LIMITLESSRules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 5 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 5 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
- The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
- Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.7k95.5%POLYMARKETDowncts97722d ago
POLYMARKETDowncts97722d ago$2.2k69.7%POLYMARKETDownchechefish22d ago
POLYMARKETDownchechefish22d agoVolume trend
$133.7kJul 43d of dataJul 6
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This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 5 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 5 '26 12:00 ET candle.
- If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
- The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
- Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.