Will we learn that somebody started/extended a wildfire to win money on a prediction market before September 2027
WeatherOne-Off10moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.6%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 19, 26, 3:57 PM UTCAug 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Must be real money prediction markets.
- Based on credible reporting, does not need to be a conviction.
- Conspiring with others to start a fire, bribing someone to start the fire for you etc. is enough to resolve YES, if it results in an intentional fire.
- Actively helping an existing fire to spread, including making it difficult for firefighters or other services to respond to the fire appropraitely (or conspiring to do it) is also enough to resolve YES.
- Inaction is by itself not enough to resolve YES.
- Partly subjective resolution, won't bet on this market.