Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64.8%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 11, 25, 5:40 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsAI data center in space by ?
FutuurWill Lumen Orbit have at least one functioning megawatt-scale data center in space by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2031, a space-based data center system meets ALL of:
- Location: In space (beyond the Kármán line, 100km altitude)
- Functional compute: Actively processing workloads with data transfer to/from Earth
- Coherent system: Either a single structure or a distributed constellation capable of training a standard distributed transformer model (e.g., data-parallel or tensor-parallel training with gradient synchronization).
- Compute capacity should be no less than a terrestrial 100MW data center running H100s could achieve.
- Scale and duration: ≥100MW average power draw by all equipment necessary for operation of the data center (including GPUs/TPUs/accelerators, CPUs, memory, networking, and cooling), sustained for ≥30 days continuous operation.
