Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66.7%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 11, 25, 5:40 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will U.S. data center electricity consumption exceed 10% of total U.S. power demand by end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX deploy an in-house turbine generator to a data center before Boom Supersonic?
Manifold MarketsAI data center in space by which date?
PolymarketAI data center in space by ?
FutuurAI data center in space by December 31, 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2031, a space-based data center system meets ALL of:
- Location: In space (beyond the Kármán line, 100km altitude)
- Functional compute: Actively processing workloads with data transfer to/from Earth
- Coherent system: Either a single structure or a distributed constellation capable of training a standard distributed transformer model (e.g., data-parallel or tensor-parallel training with gradient synchronization).
- Compute capacity should be no less than a terrestrial 100MW data center running H100s could achieve.
- Scale and duration: ≥100MW average power draw by all equipment necessary for operation of the data center (including GPUs/TPUs/accelerators, CPUs, memory, networking, and cooling), sustained for ≥30 days continuous operation.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-29.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-6.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $724.3K
- 24h Vol
- $674.2K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+46.0pt99%
- Houston+61.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+3.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704.2K
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes98%
- No2%
- Total Vol
- $125.8K
- 24h Vol
- $125.8K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- 22°C+72.5pt96%
- 23°C-6.5pt3%
- 24°C-0.8pt1%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+70.5pt100%
- 21°C or below-0.9pt0%
- 22°C-0.9pt0%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
- 32°C+85.0pt96%
- 33°C+1.3pt4%
- 25°C or below0%
+8 more outcomes
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 87 F on September 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 89 F on September 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 88 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
- Where will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031? resolve?
- Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2031, a space-based data center system meets ALL of: