Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 94.6%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJul 2, 24, 4:47 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 be greater than 1.2 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average?
ForecastExWill the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 be greater than 1.3 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average?
ForecastExWill the average Global Temperature in 2026 be greater than 1.2 C (2.16 F) above the 20th century average?
ForecastExWill the average Global Temperature in 2026 be greater than 1.33 C (2.39 F) above the 20th century average?
ForecastExAverage global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?
FutuurWill the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolve according to the "mean" average temperature reported in this webpage https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/temperature-anomaly
- resolves to 50% in case of a tie.
