Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Oct 13, 2026, 8:07 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes7.7%
No92.3%
NoWon
YesLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
B.I.G. (formerly known as "Project Big") is a sport climb in Flatanger, Norway, first climbed by Jakob Schubert in 2023 and given the grade 9c.
- By "confirmed" I mean two climbers complete the route and give it the grade 9c.
- If either climber gives it a grade different to 9c, market remains open (close date extending as necessary).
- If the grade ends up being really controversial I'll use my own judgment of the balance of opinion of relevant experts to decide if it is reasonable to say it has been "confirmed" 9c.
- (For example, if the second climber gives it 9b+ and the third climber gives it 9c, it's quite likely that I will consider that "confirmed 9c" but I'll try to find out what the consensus among climbers is.)
- If another climb is confirmed 9c first, or if a consensus is formed that B.I.G. is not 9c (either higher or lower) this market resolves NO.
