Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.1%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 1, 23, 9:14 AM UTCDec 31, 43, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Did he release the paper early to ensure his own Nobel Prize? Will the Nobel committee look poorly on that? Will it matter in any decisions they make? Resolves YES if Kwon Young-Wan is a Nobel recipient by market close.
- Will only resolve NO in advance of closure if
- there is an official statement from the Nobel committee that Kwon Young-Wan Will be specifically excluded from ever receiving a prize.
- Kwon Young-Wan dies before close date, in which case it will close when the following Nobel prices are awarded to ensure he has not been awarded posthumously (resolves YES if he is awarded the Nobel posthumously).
