Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 85.6%
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17
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 56 minutes ago
LaggingJun 25, 24, 1:25 PM UTCJan 2, 33, 4:59 AM UTC
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Compared to an H100, will tensor TFLOPs/Watt improve by 100x by 2033? AI accelerators in scope for this question must be deployed significantly - with at least 100k units or $100M (in 2024 dollars) in production, and have published perf/watt numbers.
- This market will count peak FLOPs/watt at k bits of precision, adjusted by a factor of 2^(1 - 32/k).
- That is, 16 bit precision counts 1/4 as much as 32 bit, which counts 1/4 as much as 64 bit precision.
