Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 52.2%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleFeb 16, 26, 11:36 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
The 61st Venice Biennale opens on 9 May 2026 (preview days 6-8 May).
- This market resolves YES if the Golden Lion for Best National Participation is awarded to an artist from Asia, Africa, Latin America, or the Middle East.
- Resolution criteria:
- - Award must be announced during the opening ceremony/preview days (6-8 May 2026) or by official La Biennale announcement before 31 May 2026
- - "Non-Western" defined as artists from Asia, Africa, Latin America, Middle East, or Eastern Europe
- - If the pavilion represents a Western nation but features a non-Western artist, this counts as NO (the pavilion's nation determines geographic classification)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a Global South pavilion win the Golden Lion at Venice 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a Global South pavilion win the Golden Lion at Venice 2026? resolve?
- Will a Global South pavilion win the Golden Lion at Venice 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will a Global South pavilion win the Golden Lion at Venice 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The 61st Venice Biennale opens on 9 May 2026 (preview days 6-8 May).